RUSH: Well, the politics is a little shaken up today, folks, in all sectors, and that’s because of the polls. In three swing states that Hillary Clinton was projected to win in a landslide, it’s now a dead heat. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University survey that was released today. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of those three states.
Now, in Florida, in the Quinnipiac poll, Clinton leads Trump 43-42. The conventional wisdom is that Trump isn’t gonna get above 20% in Florida because women hate him and Hispanics hate him and children hate him and just about everybody else hates him, so he’s not gonna do better than 20, 25%. They’re shocked today to see Hillary leading 43-42 — which, of course, is margin of error. Now, Clinton does hold… Hillary holds a 13-point advantage among Florida women, 48 to 35. But on the other side of the gender dividing line, Trump’s lead among men is just as big, 49-36.
In Florida, independents are split 39 to 39%. So all the conventional wisdom out of the box is already turned upside down. Hillary is supposed to be cleaning Trump’s clock in Florida because of the women divide, the gender gap per se, and the fact that the conventional wisdom says that Hispanics hate Trump. And so now the left, the liberals, the Democrats, they’re trying to concoct excuses for this. “Well,” they’re saying, “this is just Trump’s postnomination bounce.”
Yeah, well, what’s the problem with that? Trump hasn’t been nominated yet. There hasn’t been the convention. The postnomination bounce is actually called a postconvention bounce, and there hasn’t been the convention yet. Therefore, there hasn’t been a bounce. And these people on the left, as you know, they live and die by polls. So now they’re scratching their heads and they’re actually talking amongst themselves on these left-wing TV shows.
They’re asking themselves, “My God! Oh, my God! Do you think Trump could actually win?”
“Well, we’d have to say, looking at the polls, it looks like it’s possible.”
“No, no, no. The polls can’t possibly be right in this.”
“Yes, you say that, but we rely on these polls and we believe them every time they come out.”
“Well, yes, you have a good point. But this can’t possibly be right.”
So they’re having to reassure themselves something’s not right with the poll. Just one state, it would be easier. But, in Ohio, registered voters prefer Trump to Clinton 43 to 39%. That’s just at the fringe of the margin of error. That’s not supposed to happen, because, just like in Florida, Hispanics, however many of them there are in Ohio, are supposed to hate Trump. And women everywhere are supposed to hate Trump. And there aren’t enough men who might like Trump and dislike Hillary to make up for all the women that hate Trump.
Except none of that’s showing up in the polling data. Trump leads among men 51-36% in Ohio. Women prefer Hillary 43 to 36%. And, among independents, it’s Trump over Hillary 40 to 37%. Okay, so it’s a second state, and it’s an important state. It’s Ohio. And then we go to Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is 43-42% Clinton, just like it is in Florida. Among women, Clinton leads 51-42%. Trump leads with men 54-33%.
Now, at roughly this same point in the campaign back in 2012, Barack Hussein O led Romney by single digits in Ohio and Pennsylvania while Romney led by one point in Florida. Obama ended up winning all three by single digits, and that’s what people are gonna be falling back on here. But this isn’t supposed to happen. You have to remember that in pretty much within every circle of the establishment, be it Republican or Democrat — talking specifically establishment types — Trump is going to get blown out.
I mean, this is what they’re all telling themselves. The Republican establishment especially, but the Democrats believe it, too. “Trump is going to get blown out. It isn’t gonna be close. In fact, this is gonna be such a blowout — it’s gonna be so bad — that it is going to forever change the political landscape in America, and it’s going to forever change — it might actually serve to eliminate — the Republican Party. That’s how bad it’s gonna be! That’s how badly Hillary is going to beat Trump.”
And then these three polls hit. And there are people scratching their heads in curiosity. Others are in near panic over this. I’ve got some examples here of Drive-Bys talking about this, and they’re having to chat themselves off the ledge. They’re talking to each other, “No, no, no, no! Don’t worry.” “But does this mean that Trump can win?” “Yeah, I think we have to admit now that, yeah, Trump can win.” “No, no, no! Trump can’t win. There there’s no scenario that he wins.” “Well, I think the polls indicate that we might have to consider it as a possibility.”
So they’re trying to talk themselves off the ledge here on several Drive-By networks.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Now, the audio sound bites, here is CBS This Morning, sound bites four and five. Mark McKinnon — these are the No Labels guys that have this show on Showtime called The Circus, and it’s about the selection of nominees during the primary process. You’ve got Mark Halperin, who’s part of the group, and McKinnon, and they proudly call themselves No Labels, which means they’re conservatives but, well, no, they’re not.
They used to be maybe but they don’t like to be called conservatives ’cause they’re embarrassed and they’re ashamed of it. But yet they’re still Republican. So they think No Labels is the way they can inoculate themselves from public humiliation, being mocked and being laughed at. So Norah O’Donnell is talking to ’em. They’re talking about presidential race. She says, “McKinnon, you worked for George W. Bush. George W. Bush, his father, other Republicans say they’re not gonna go to the convention. Can Trump win this?”
O’DONNELL: You worked for George W. Bush. George W. Bush, his father, other Republicans say they’re not going to the convention. Can he win?
MCKINNON: Well, that’s what these polls out today say. Yeah, he can. These are swing states and he’s winning in Ohio. That’s quite a surprise.
RUSH: Mark Halperin has to come along and assure them that these polls are real, they’re real polls in real states.
HALPERIN: A lot of tensions are Republicans thinking we don’t really like him, we don’t trust him, and he can’t win. If it looks like he can win and Republicans can have the House, Senate, and White House, a lot of Republicans will follow.
ROSE: These are real polls. I mean, these are real numbers.
HALPERIN: These are really polls in real states.
RUSH: Yeah, Charlie Rose, “These are these are real polls. These are real numbers.” Oh, yeah, Charlie these are real polls, these are real numbers. (imitating Charlie), “Well, what do we know about these polls? Do know what these polls have read. Do we know what books these polls have read?” They’re real polls, Charlie, they’re real states. Wow, Trump’s doing this well.
Now, over to ABC, Good Morning America, George Stephanopoulos speaking with Matthew Dowd. This guy used to work for the Bushes, a Bush spokesman and has moved over to the Drive-Bys. He’s now a supposedly strategerist or analyst, a gadfly here running around. I guess he wants to be considered a moderate more than anything else. Anyway, he’s talking with Stephanopoulos about these Battleground polls that have the Democrats freaking out right now.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Those polls, even though this is quite early, have to be bracing for the Democrats.
DOWD: I think they’re very bracing for the Democrats. We have a jump ball today in the course of this race. I think what the voters are gonna be faced with is you have two candidates that are very disliked in the course of this. It’s a little bit like being hungry walking up to the refrigerator, looking into the refrigerator, thinking, I don’t want anything in that refrigerator, but I’m hungry. And I think that’s gonna create tremendous volatility in this race from now until Election Day.
RUSH: That’s an interesting analogy, you’re hungry, you walk up to the fridge, you open it and there’s nothing in there that you want. That’s depressing, isn’t it, depending on how hungry you are. And it can make you really mad at whoever stocks the fridge. Who the hell is responsible for nothing being in here that I like?
But that’s not it. Larry Sabato. This is Fox & Friends this morning, Steve Doocy speaking with Sabato. He runs University of Virginia Center for Politics, and he’s talking about these polls. Doocy says, “There are three brand-new Quinnipiac polls: Florida, Trump and Clinton are tied. Pennsylvania, pretty much tied. Ohio, Trump actually leads Hillary by four points.” Larry, what is going on here, bud?
SABATO: You have to go into the poll to see what’s significant. The number one thing that I think is significant from these polls is that average Republicans, rank-and-file Republicans, have more or less coalesced around Donald Trump. That is, the rank-and-file is ahead of the leadership, which is still disputing whether Donald Trump should be the nominee or whether they should support Donald Trump as the nominee. And that, obviously, is important. You need a unified party, at least at the base, in order to win an election.
RUSH: Well, you realize the import of that? Sabato is saying the party has already unified behind Trump. That’s what these polls have to mean. Look, you can’t just commission a poll and then when you don’t like it say, “Ah, it can’t be,” and throw it out. And Quinnipiac has its reputation. So it’s got Trump up by four in one of these states and within the margin of error/tied with Hillary in the other two.
And nobody can believe it, and Sabato says — ’cause of what what’s happened here is the Republican Party — the people that are gonna vote in the presidential race, have unified behind Trump. They’ve accepted Trump. The only people that haven’t are the establishment and their buds and others that are related to ’em. And it’s making it appear like there isn’t any unity, but there is when it comes to voters. That’s Sabato’s point.
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