RUSH: And here we are, folks, it’s Tuesday, and that means the Wisconsin primary is underway, and the entire campaign takes on a new meaning, depending on the results tonight. We’ve had a lull. We’ve had a couple of weeks between the last primaries and the lull has been filled with the usual blather about polls, opinions, what-ifs, hypotheticals. Now we’re gonna get some hard results tonight, and the expectation game is in place.

Greetings. Great to have you. Another three hours of broadcast excellence, and El Rushbo at, the e-mail address, ElRushbo@eibnet.com.

So basically in a nutshell, if Cruz wins tonight, the conventional wisdom is that resets the entire primary and sets Cruz on a path to win it. That’s what people are saying, conventional wisdom.

The other side, if Trump wins Wisconsin, which based on polling data, would be considered an upset, if Trump wins Wisconsin, then the same conventional wisdomers are saying that it’s over.

In almost both instances the conventional wisdom wants you to believe it is over tonight. If Cruz wins, it means it’s the end of it for Trump because then the burden shifts to him to win big in New York and to win big in Pennsylvania. Not just win, but to win big. Ditto in New Jersey. If it goes all the way to California, the latest polling data in California, which is in early June, has Trump and Cruz tied.

So it’s fascinating to me that everybody wants this over, or at least they’re saying things that make it look like they want this to be over. And I don’t think that’s really the case. I think too many people are enjoying the unknown, the unpredictability and the drama of all of this. But yet when you get down to the various advocate sides, both sides — we’re leaving Kasich out of this for the moment ’cause he’s not really in it, in the moment. 1-for-31. The guy’s won one state and they’re still talking about him, and it’s only in the eventuality of an open or contested convention.

But the Cruz people, really a lot invested tonight. If Cruz wins tonight, the conventional wisdom is it resets the whole thing. Trump will not have won in five primaries in a row, they will be saying. The conventional wisdom says that here’s Trump, what’s his big selling point? That we’re gonna win. With Trump we’re gonna win. There’s gonna be so much winning, we’re gonna get tired of winning. There’s gonna be so much winning, we’re gonna ask President Trump to lose now and then just to keep us humble.

But after tonight, if Trump loses Wisconsin, there’s no winning. I mean, there’s no momentum. This will be the fourth or fifth primary in a row that Trump has not won. So it’ll make his primary message “winning” a little empty, so goes the conventional wisdom and that’s why it would reset everything and mobilize forces for Cruz.

Now, it’s interesting on the Cruz side — don’t get mad at me here. I’m just sharing with you things that I’ve learned in recent days. There’s a lot of support for Cruz out there. I don’t think people understand what’s really going on throughout the so-called conservative movement. ‘Cause I am here to tell you that there are some in the conservative movement who will not be unhappy at all if Hillary Clinton becomes president because they can keep their fundraising up. Keep the donations coming in by warning everybody of the disasters that are gonna happen with Hillary Clinton in the White House.

The same thing they accuse me of, essentially, except in my case it isn’t true. For 27 years I’ve had various people in the media say, “You know what? Limbaugh’s talking a good game. He really loves the Democrats winning because that’s when his show really has got things to bounce off of and there’s villains and there’s enemies.” Not true. I really do care about the country. But there are some in the conservative movement, I mean, I’m gonna move the so-called allegation around a little bit, there are some — I wouldn’t have been believed this, by the way, had I not been given some incontrovertible evidence of it. But there are some people not advocating for Hillary to win; they’re just not gonna be upset if she does.

They are primarily anti-Trumpsters. This group of conservatives despises Trump. They worry horribly about Trump for the very same reason. If Trump wins and everybody is gonna agree that he’s not a movement conservative guy, then it’s gonna impact negatively conservative movement fundraising, donations, and power structures and so forth because they’re not gonna be able to claim that they’re helping Trump. They’re not gonna be able to claim that they’re tight with Trump. So never, never discount the role of money.

You know, that Michael Gerson piece in the Washington Post that I really haven’t gone into great detail on on purpose, but he wrote this piece blaming me for Trump, blaming me for everything. It was a pretty big hit piece, but those happen routinely now, so I didn’t comment on it. But the thing in it that really upset him more than anything was that my allegations about certain members of the establishment wanting to preserve their financial circumstance — in other words, that they are being oriented, motivated by money, oh, did that offend them. Because, you see, they want to be seen as above all of those mundane concerns like how do you pay the bills.

They’re so much more important than that. They’re so much bigger. They don’t have such concerns. Such concerns would never, ever influence their intellectualism. And there I went and said it. But you can’t deny it. It’s true for everybody. I mean, even one of the large constituency groups of Trump, what’s motivating a lot of support is stagnant wages for 15 years among a significant portion of America.

It matters. Everybody knows it matters. Follow the money. You’ll always — most of the time, anyway — be able to answer a lot of questions to which the answers don’t make sense until you apply the money aspect to it. So fundraising and donation, people live and die on that.

They need certain circumstances for that to max out, and they either… They do one of two things: They need to be able to position themselves as powerful enough to stop the enemy, like Hillary, or they have to be able to portray themselves as up close, personal, and tight enough with whoever is in power to have great influence over that person. If one of those two circumstances doesn’t eventuate, then they panic. And Trump is what equals one of those two circumstances not eventuating.

I mean, people I’m talking about — and there are a lot of them — have been totally disposed against Trump since the beginning for a whole host of reasons, but they don’t tell you this reason that I am explaining to you. And what they do… Their cover is that they are for Cruz. This is my real point with this. They make a point of making it look like their opposition to Trump is rooted in support for Cruz, but it really isn’t.

Not that they oppose Cruz, but that the thing that motivates them and informs them — that ambulates them, if you will — is really opposition to Trump, which includes not being all that upset if Hillary wins. Then by the same token, you’ve got some people in the conservative movement who are dead set against Trump and for Cruz strictly for principle and honor and patriotism and so forth. So the interests here are many and they are varied and they are deep.

And many of them are personal. So if Cruz wins, conventional wisdom is that’s it for Trump. That’s four or five losses in a row. That destroys the brand of “winning.” It obviously brings to a screeching halt any momentum, and it will then begin presenting coverage of why. “What has gone wrong? What did go wrong? What is wrong with Trump?” That begins a whole series of negative coverage such as the polling data on his unfavorables, primarily with women.

If Trump pulls an upset and wins, then it becomes a matter of 1,237. It looks like he can make it — and in that sense, it will be over. So a lot of people… That’s all of these primaries… We’ve had days like this where people said, “This is it! This! What happens tonight, this is gonna determine the outcome.” Those are media people interested in ratings. But it’s true again tonight. They’re saying, “What happens tonight in Wisconsin will probably tell us how this is all going to end.”

But it will not tell us if it takes us to a contested, brokered, whatever, convention. It will not tell us what’s gonna happen there, which continues the possibility for Kasich and continues the possibility for Paul Ryan, who’s saying so often that he doesn’t want it, that you begin to be suspicious. And then Marco Rubio is out there desperately holding onto his delegates. Obviously he wants to have some leverage in what happens.

So that basically is the way the table gets set. That’s how all this happens today. I myself am not going to know until about 11 o’clock tonight or midnight what happened because I gotta go to New York. I have to zip up to New York after the program. I have an annual event tonight. I’ll be able to sneak a peek now and then, but not much. So I won’t know. I will not get home probably until two a.m. tomorrow. (interruption) Oh, yeah, I’m zipping back. You don’t think I’m staying up there and let the tax authorities figure out I’m doing work up there?

No way.

That’d trigger another three-year audit. No, so I will zip right back. I’ll get back about two in the morning, and I will be able to figure out what all happened on the flight home, on the plane ride home. So none of what I do here will be interrupted. I just want you to know. If you’re thinking, “Gee, what does Rush think of this?” I won’t know, unless something so outrageous happens that the event tonight’s interrupted for people to learn. But the event tonight is not political in any way, shape, manner, or form, so… (interruption)

Yeah, my watch will be vibrating and I’ll have the phone with me, and I’ll be able to the check now and then, but I’m not gonna be able to get into in-depth stuff. I’m not gonna be able to listen to speeches, victory, defeat speeches, what have you, whatever happens, until 11 o’clock when it’s all over. I assume it’s gonna be known by 11, Eastern Time.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: We’re up to sound bite number four. This is Trump in LaCrosse, Wisconsin, yesterday analyzing the Wisconsin primary.

TRUMP: If we do well here, folks, it’s over. If — if we don’t —

AUDIENCE: (cheering)

TRUMP: If we don’t win here, it’s not over, but wouldn’t you like to take the credit in Wisconsin for ending it? Give Wisconsin the credit for ending it, and then we could focus on Hillary instead of these two guys.

RUSH: Latest polling data — I think the ones that everybody pays attention to — is that Cruz is up 4.5%, 4.6%. There’s a couple polls that have Cruz up 10%. An ARG Poll that most people are laughing out came out yesterday has Trump up 10%, but nobody knows. I take that back! Kellyanne Conway knows. I take that back. I watched her. She was on I think it was CNN this morning. Kellyanne Conway. She works for Cruz, not that that matters. But she’s a great pollster. And she predicted, when the subject of Trump winning Wisconsin came up. “No, no, no, no, no, no,” she said. “Cruz is gonna win this, and he’s gonna get to 40%.” So they’re pretty confident on the Cruz side that the polling data in their favor is right.

Here is Joe Trippi, Democrat analyst, on Fox & Friends this morning, being asked if he thinks Trump is right; that if he wins Wisconsin, it’s over.

TRIPPI: I would say that’s true. If he wins, it’s very tough to see how, uh, Cruz has any argument to go on. Look, with what the establishment’s thrown at him and what Cruz has going for him: Popular, Governor Walker, the organization he has, plus demographics aren’t the best for Trump in a state like Wisconsin.

RUSH: Steve Doocy then said, “Karl Rove, do you agree with Joe’s analysis of Trump’s analysis that if Trump win’s Wisconsin it’s over?”

ROVE: I do, because he agreed with Trump. I think Trump’s right. If he wins Wisconsin, the contest is over. Trump has done slightly better in states where there is an open primary, where independents and Democrats can come in and vote. This state is one where he should be able, manufacturing state, blue-collar state, he spent a lot of time there. If he wins, it’s over. If he loses, this is gonna be a tougher contest.

RUSH: Right. So if Trump wins I tell you there’s something else — you Cruzers had better be on the lookout for this. You may want to pooh-pooh this when you hear me say it, but I think if Trump does win tonight, you’re gonna be faced with a bunch of people from all over the spectrum — I’m not naming names here — that Cruz should get out, is what you’re gonna hear. He can’t win. It’s mathematically impossible. Cruz can’t win, need to get out, need to unify.

There’s gonna be pressure brought. I don’t think Cruz is gonna react to it. I just want to tell you it’s gonna offend you, gonna make you mad. The strategy all along here is to take this to a contested convention, ’cause Cruz believes no matter what it’s either him or Trump that are gonna be chosen. One of those two is gonna win the nomination. And he’s already working the delegates for the second ballot in a contested convention. Maybe — not maybe — is doing a much more organizational job, better job than Trump is, of getting great relationships going with delegates for that second ballot, if nobody wins on the first.